Halo 3 to Clear 4 Million Copies in Two Months?

So says GamerMetrics in a report compiled by analyst Nick Williams, which suggests Halo 3 will push over 4 million units in the United States alone two months after it launches. Williams also expects the “final” Master Chief story (yeah right) to “almost double” Gears of War’s to-date unit sales in just five weeks (Gears of War was the fastest selling title in 2006). Anyone foolish enough to bet against him?

Bear in mind the install base factor. Gears of War would almost certainly have sold more copies if the Xbox 360 were in its fourth or fifth year with an install base of 24 million or more, i.e. the original Xbox’s May 10, 2006 sales figure. No surprise, Williams says Halo 3 is going to rock the socks off Xbox 360 sales for the next three months, adding:

Furthermore, the addictive nature of the Halo 3 multiplayer feature lends itself to repeat playing sessions usually lasting for hours at a time. In other words, the ‘Halo effect’ on the video game industry will be far more dramatic than a major movie release on the film industry, as the impact will be felt well beyond the weekend of launch. Gamers will have little free time to play other titles during the early holiday months, meaning less attention given to competing Xbox 360 software releases.

Halo (Combat Evolved) hit 5 million copies, Halo 2 sold over 9.2 million. On Halo 3’s “worldwide copies sold” hit list? Let’s do this top to bottom: *

Game Boy: Pokemon Red, Blue, and Green (20.08 million)

NES: Super Mario Bros. 3 (18 million)

Nintendo DS: Nintendogs (14.79 million)

Playstation 2: Grand Theft Auto: Vice City (13 million)

Nintendo 64: Super Mario 64 (11 million)

Playstation: Gran Turismo (10.5 million)

Xbox: Halo 2 (9.2 million)

SNES: Donkey Kong Country (8.3 million)

Atari 2600: Pac-Man (7 million)

Sega Genesis: Sonic the Hedgehog (6 million)

Gamecube: Super Smash Bros. Melee (6 million)

Wii: Wii Play (4.49 million)

Xbox 360: Gears of War (4 million)

So what do you think? Will it finally dethrone Gran Turismo for the PS2?

Also: Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter says Halo 3 will sell 3 million units (presumably worldwide) in its first 12 days.

* Source: Wikipedia’s List of Best Selling Video Games. Note I’ve excluded bundles as well as any system with life-to-date software sales under 4 million, e.g. the Playstation 3, the Dreamcast, the Saturn, etc.